Could you expand on this:
That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.
There are two factors which need to be considered:
a) In the future no single ASIC hardware producer can install and maintain the amount of equipment they are able to produce, causing them to rely on customers to buy/rent the equipment
b) Different customers have different power and overhead costs. E.g. 0% operating profit at $0.20/kWh mean 100% operating profit at $0.10/kWh mean 900% operating profit at $0.02/kWh. There are only so many places around the world with low power costs...
That leads to a situation where there are simply not enough buyers for ASIC hardware at some point, forcing ASIC hardware producers to lower prices if they still want to keep selling equipment (and thus making lower and lower operating profit margins viable).
However, that said - the tech arbitrage can still go on for some time - I expect it to persist until the bitcoin price hits six to seven digits.
Oh wow.. I didn't expect things could last that long this way.
What solution do you see for the pricing scheme issues, thinking in terms of regular new Bitcoin end-users (not big miners or franchises)?
Is it a problem ASIC companies are interested in solving or is it part of the tech arbitrage? (BFL clearly isn't...)
The mass adoption of Ghash (at very high GH prices!) and their irresponsible use of the network power really frighten me. I would much rather have new people acquiring AM / KNC (either alone or in groupbuys), but I don't think the companies are making it easy for people to adopt them/stay loyal.