Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.
Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.
At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.
So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc.
Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.