I really think your reasoning is quite farfetched and quite impossible to happen, but hey. At least you gave us an actual explanation instead of posts like "bitcoin at $5k soon, trust me".
Currently we have 17 mil bitcoins according to statistics 4-6mil are already lost(forgotten pasword, burned during wrong transfers etc). That gives us 11 mil of bitcoins. Few mils are stuck on wallets where they have to be (for example mt gox wallet), on longtime hodlers etc. Lets say that we have 8 mil of bitcoins that can be possibly dump.
How do you even know that 4-6mil are "lost"? You can't prove that.
Its according to statisticks. There is nothing to proof. It might be wrong. It might be 3 mil or 7 mil. Just grab source:
http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/https://fossbytes.com/billion-lost-bitcoins/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-lost-mining-how-to-find-cryptocurrency-value-chainalysis-satoshi-nakamoto-a8091851.html4-6 mil was on page in my native language. Those 4 mil are also calculated months ago. This number is increasing everyday (and this is also indicator for future longterm bitcoin grow - if in 2025 there will be only 2 mil bitcoins rest will be lost price could be great).
Im not talking that this will happen tommorow. I post this math speculation to show you guys that in trading world nothing is ceraint. Even best analysis wont predict you from whales that can change market dramatically.
Good aspect of this is that its imposible to do that in south direction. Because if someone would use his few mil bitcoins to dump to 1$ there will be whales who would buy his few mil cos for few mil $ and stop this.
We have supports, resistances, trendlines, RSI but they have money. We should start to think like a whale. Thinking where he is trying to trick us. Where he is prepering for big moves etc. Alwais after any analysis try to think beafore transaction "isnt it a whale who is trying to push me into this trade by showing buy oportunity?"
This post was not made to convince anyone that it will happend. It was made to show that even that never seen, unbelievable situation with bitcoin pump 200% in 1 day is possible. And even if it is possible than any other situation in smaller scale is possible too. Thats why we should alwais have in back of our heads that in trading nothing is cerain.
If you would read to the end you will see that i wrote it by myself that it is unlikely to happend but it is only example to show that in trading nothing is certain.
Thats why i choose 20k in 1 day. To make it quite impossible. I could chose 12k in 1 week made by 1 whale and fomo noobs. But it wont be quite impossible and wont show how unpredictable this market can be.I really think your reasoning is quite farfetched and quite impossible to happen, but hey.
Yea just like i said.
Quite impossible.