On further reflection, if you randomly accumulate shares of weight (fraction of required difficulty) >= 10^-4 until their sum weight exceeds 1, then the expected number of shares is 5000.
I calculated wrong.
n shares expect to accumulate about n*ln(n)*10^-4 in weight, so we expect
a little under 1400 shares to accumulate unit weight...
Interesting, appreciate it if you would share the logic beyond the formula. It would be very helpful. To be honest I have not done too much on it and my initial assumption about 4650 shares is very naive. I was just sure that the number won't be any higher for average number of shares per block.
Thank you so much for your contribution.
