Worst case scenario (but perhaps most likely) is that this is a dead cat bounce in China.
But regardless, why are people buying BTC at all in China?
I have heard that they would buy it to arbitrage it? Ok, assuming they have a way to keep the money or move it back into China. I doubt, however, this is massive.
I have heard that perhaps they want to still own Bitcoin for black market trading. Possible I suppose, but certainly not widespread.
If I understand correctly, $0 money is coming into BTCChina. Am I right? If not where is money coming from? Because I can't wire money to BTCChina from the U.S. So where can people send it from?
I just do not see how BTCChina continues to exist as it is with no new deposits coming from. And if people can't send fresh money, how the hell are they buying bitcoins?
Do you know how much fiat is sitting on the sidelines there now after the crazy sell-off? Some of it will be withdrawn, but it is also very tempting for those who sold at 4-5k+ CNY to double their bitcoins by buying back in. Bitcoin is not dead in China, and new deposit methods are coming soon and once that is possible again you can pretty much guess what's going to happen. Smart people will want to buy (back) in at a low price before it is even announced that deposits are going to be enabled again.
So deposits are going to be magically available again. Some 3rd party is going to just give the government the finger and say f*ck you, I'm doing business with these guys? And that's going to last how long?
It never made sense to me why Bobby Lee opened a Chinese exchange. A Hong Kong one I can definitely understand, but China?
I think he will close up and move shop.
LOL no 3rd party payment network would dare to mess with the government. I bet my ass, there are government officials involved in trading. Its not unusual for the officials to do such things over there.
Beside.... you know most their children are "studying" abroad right?