Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 19/06/2018, 07:37:50 UTC
Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?

I had 2-3 coins in 2013. (or 2014, I know I had them before the crash) I managed to cash out just from the top price $1000. I bought myself an ipad and a nice vacation. Then I told myself how clever I was for dumping that shit at the top. LoL suckers right?

Now I am buying back those coins from $6k+, I even bought some at $15k few months ago. That's how I sold low and bought *high.

*only for now. This time I know what's going on.
** I also didn't dump shit at $20k, only buying more.

O.k., so pretty much you are saying that you made some profits in 2013/2014, when you sold because you were able to buy those nice things with the profits.  However, perhaps 1) you ended up spending both principle and profits on your nice things, 2) you did not recognize the investment value of bitcoin until much later, so you did not buy many bitcoins between 2014 and 2015, 3) you said that you bought some bitcoin in late 2016, but that was not enough (or was not very many bitcoins), 4) you seemed to recognize the value of bitcoin late - in 2017 and perhaps even in late 2017.  

These are really tough circumstances, and still I gather that it is very unlikely that you really did learn your lesson and really do recognize the value of bitcoin. Hopefully, you can just engage in a kind reasoned approach, and just buy back with reasonable amounts of ongoing dollar cost averaging rather than attempting to bet on either the direction of the market or engage in a kind of gambling.

It seems that even if you have screwed some things up in your recent bitcoin perspective history, I think that if you continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin and attempt to learn from your mistakes and attempt to employ incrementalism strategies, you could be doing very well, financially, in 5-10 years.  Personally, I don't think that you should attempt to rush the matter, because you will have a greater likelihood to take rash actions, like you already have done in the past.  Anyhow, hopefully, it all works out and you can attempt to play the long game, and please keep in mind that sometimes I may seem to be harsh on people or lecture people for gambling too much, but it is mostly because I don't think that gambling is a very good way to approach the matter, and if you do not rush the situation, there are still decent chances that you can build up your BTC portfolio and  things are going to work out for you.  If you end up gambling and playing around too much with alts and things like that then the odds of your personally profiting are not likely to be as good.

The difference between late 2016-late 2017 and early 2018 is that I used to dollar cost averaging with my %5-10 income, now I am dollar cost averaging with its %80-90.

Well, ultimately, you are going to do what you are going to do, and even though your amounts seem a bit high to me, there may be some reasonable basis for the amounts that you have chosen to invest in bitcoin if your underlying fiat is not holding value.

It is considered that the dollar loses between 1% to 3% per year due to inflation of goods to buy and various depreciation mechanisms including the printing of money that depreciates the value of the dollars that you hold, yet it is still good to hold a certain amount of dollars to off-set a volatile risky investment, such as bitcoin.

Another concept that I like to keep in mind is having enough of a cash reserve in order that you do not have to dip into your bitcoin investment that a time that is not of your choosing... so what I do is project my cashflow ahead for up to 18 months.  The amount of time that I project ahead is going to vary based on various business activities of mine, including if I have debt money that I am floatin and considering the payments, too.

If you have a steady source of income (cash flow) then you can be kind of lucky to be able to project your cashflow, but if you have a business, then there may be a certain necessity to underestimate your cashflow, which will better prepare you for emergencies, and increase the chances that your cashflow is going to outperform expectations (and a decent portion of the "outperformance" can be used to invest in something like bitcoin).

Turkish Lira already became worthless against the USD anyway, since it is about to become the next Bolivar, I almost have nothing to lose at this point so I am going all in with btc. I am still afraid to move my FIAT (USD) stash into btc which I gathered in years. I'll be buying btc only with the new money and wait for a 2015 like opportunity. If that opportunity never comes back, then I'll be Dollar Costing my income with btc anyway.

My altcoin exposure is around %3. I am not much into alts.


My alt coin exposure is less than 2% of my total crypto investment, so we are in the same boat (similar mindset) there.