I have a reasonable understanding of this first gen tech. Couldn't really explain what a merckle tree is though. My belief in Bitcoin has changed over the years though.
Primarily, the tech is irrelevant if everyone buys bitcoin simply because the price is rising. That renders it a ponzi scheme. If people just cared about the tech there would be no crashes or panic sell offs.
The tech itself whilst interesting, is full of problems. It consumes an insane amount of power, the LN could scale it, but why? Nobody spends it.
From an economic perspective a deflationary currency is a dumb idea, because there's no incentive to spend an asset that could be worth more in the future.
From a market perspective, it's easy for whales to manipulate the price up. Just buy loads on low volume driving through psychological barriers. FOMO noobs then buy pushing it up to insane levels. Methods made illegal in regular markets like painting the tape green are also used. There's huge insider trading on exchanges too.
From a regulatory standpoint, there's no way governments and banks will let this go to 100k...it would literally risk damaging the world economy on its next cyclical crash. It's trivial to hurt bitcoin hard. Just tell banks it's illegal to send money to exchanges.
Tether looks ropey as hell, might not be backed up by real money and anything pegged to the dollar could be viewed as counterfeit dollars. They are going to be in trouble.
Blockchain could work if it crypto was pegged to a stable currency which may happen...but it won't be bitcoin.
I still hold a couple of coins for the fun of it though. I've also made a ton of money.
Good luck dealing with the stress of holding this if it ever got anywhere near 100k. If most of your net worth is gambled on something that can drop 80 percent your life becomes consumed by it.
It wasn't meant to be, but this operates like a ponzi. The early adopters (2012 wasn't that long ago) hold most of the coins. You noobs are just buying the few that are available... Pushing the price up. Until it goes down.
This crash hasn't even finished. This recovery is fake. Bull trap/short squeeze / car dead cat bounce... Call it what you will