As far as I understand it...sia-tech was NEVER interested in the siacoin price in that it was based on SCARCITY...they wanted sia to be used by their
ASIC's in a network for the ASIC security...these coins would gain their worth from the use in the ASIC network and the 30% inflation was needed
to expand this decentralized ...cheap 10c to the $1.00 alternative to Amazon and other centralized networks...
thus..it was always assumed by me (at least) that as soon as these ASIC's hit their decentralized network..the network would determine the worth
of siacoin no longer the scarcity from GPU mining etc. What confuses me is IF this was really their goal then why they did not fork siacoin to retain
control over the amount of ASIC miners is a mystery to me...it will be much more than 30% coin inflation a month now...
The good news is IF, they have the sia-tech ready to go for when these ASIC's hit in July and start to firm up the backbone for their vision..no issues
but I hear NOTHING about HOW they plan to convert folk from known centralized storage like Amazon into their vision with NO promotion I'm aware of...
also, no mention of what they are going to do with 5x the ASIC's they expected (if you take out the bitmain units as no longer profitable..a bit iffy that)
right now on coin price...if I had my units NOW I'd make $1 a day...per obelisk unit....thus....the network vision they have tried to do has to come
up to speed and take up the slack or NO ASIC miners will run their network if it costs more than the present siacoin price to run them
but, hey, they got a lot of BTC from the pre-orders last year ..the ave price was like 0.97 BTC in my case....back last July 2017 or so....they did not fork
the coin..after bitmain equipment dump....so maybe they have siacoin in hand and/or the BTC still in hand to cover all the equipment/research etc in the
ASIC's they put out ..so no risk to them there....I just don't see sia-tech having anything on the line with all this either as getting their network up in
time..nor on their 4 batches of obelisks, none of them have shipped yet, where is the hype? where are the promo's? how are you gonna take on Amazon?
deafening silence....
just wonder if they will just watch the ASIC network all kick in...and they will dwadle around half-assed wait and not get their network up in any legit time frame
and it will fail...(a big ho hum from them) and no real risk to them, with all risk on those who are speculating in siacoin and those who bought their line on their ASIC
network vision of 'competing' with Amazon...damn hard to compete if the folk gonna buy in have never heard of your vision/option and no scale-up at all!
from sia-tech already paid for..probably many times over if they kept some of the payments in bitcoin...asic miners left holding the bag
1) ASIC's from obelisk and others, come up...can't mine at present prices...no network of any note to support such..ASIC buyers left holding the bag...
2) folk speculating on siacoin, price can't support itself from all the ASIC's driving up difficulty and price..no more scarcity for price....are left holding the bag
3) after the dust settles ..they can go the new algo route on the letter they sent out with different algo makers and put their decentralized network or
use this now defunct protocol with other asic's in the future...after all the above crashes...lots of options..or they can just fold shop and walk with no issues.
...on that...if it takes them another year to get up to speed to launch anything....see 1) and 2) above of those screwed...but as to the devs and sia-tech
as a whole...no real risk.....called having your cake and eat it too...as an asic maker and or a dev....by that I mean the network gets up..when the network
gets up....dev is set for life as a crypto holder....like luke jr. of bitcoin core...screw everybody...it gets up when they feel like it ..ie again no risk /pressure...
rinse/wash/repeat ..seen this before with projects
so the question remains...if the price is not in the speculation of siacoins for scarcity etc because a crapload of siacoin ASIC's from different mnfg's and
Obelisk ASIC's are going to turn on ...if in sia-tech obelisk's case...middle of July 2018....is their vision/network up to the task of keeping these beasties up
to even support the network...or are you just mining promised and air? ...again, likely future 'bag holder'
you have to have use/volume and their decentralized network 'in play' to pay electric and make extra coin for yourself via the network or all is moot..
or again, is the project not ready, and it is not in their control and thus they are just gonna watch it implode....blame bitmain, blame other mnfg's with blake2b ASIC's and
kick the can down the road...as a re-do? or hell just fold up the project..take whatever income or profits made in the last year or so and walk?
again, seen this before on projects
again, deafening silence on any/all of the above issues
thats how i understand stuff at this point in time anyway...they have to hit the ground running or come the end of July when the ASIC's hit ..I just have
a mess of Obelisk doorstops...
brad
I think you miss some fundamentals here...with influx of ASICS, NOTHING changes with amount of sia coins produced...1 billion ASICS
would produce same number of coins as 3 GPUs (if network would drop down to 3 GPUs level, that is)...only difficulty rises, making
it harder to stay competitive
Back to my point...if ASIC's are needed for the decentralized network they plan and the NETWORK IS NOT IN PLACE YET to compete with Amazon
at the supposed 10c to 1.00 format, etc...and IF the siacoin price NOW is based on scarcity..it won't matter...no one will turn on equip of any flavor
asic, gpu or otherwise for a coin that has no value in that it is 1) no longer based on scarcity for price (esp if 5x the ASIC's driving up difficulty and coin
production) and 2) no network for these ASIC's to contribute to.
you can't have both the coin is either 1) valuable because of scarcity vs use or 2) valutble for use in their decentralized network
I'm just saying I see no such decentralized network in place in any manner large enough nor complete enough to pull the price out of the dumps ..indeed
it will make it worse for price of siacoin in the obvious fact of no network in place and a lot of asic's sitting about..folk will NOT run their asic's at an electrial
loss....price of siacoin will not stay up just on speculaltion of network coming and previous scarcity ..thus plunk
if you doubt that look at the amount of asic's that were dumped vs the LTC price as of today...difficulty overstepped the value of the coin (LTC) ...
so a muddled mess indeed..hope it won't happen....but not hearing a lot of the decentralized network hitting the world at the same time as all the asic's
hit the siacoin world either
sure, amount of sia coin will be 'the same' but a lot of coin does not mean it keeps value....
Again, even if it dropped back to GPU mining and the ASIC's are off the electric use is the same more or less....the coin will not survive if they
say they made a mess of ASIC's for their decentralized solution to storage...and 'guess what' it is not there or they postpone it for a year
and the current crop of asic's are of no use to run....speculators will walk, gpu miners will not compete with asic's that also are going to go
off or in a dismal state...it is like the old paycoin cloud mining viewpoint...if the rug is pulled out from under the concept..than it won't matter
how many coin there are....the consumers will go to more successful coins, that would not have the damage of the above from a late
network launch and asic's in the tank unable to be used for anything of note, because price of siacoin tanks on the above fiasco.
Sure the network would survive, sure sia-tech would likely survive even such a missed launch...but could siacoin ever recover after such
a fiasco...doubtful...money talks and bullsh*t walks....folk would walk with eventual coin being worth nothing in their vision was not up to
speed on the storage solution when they said and with the asic dump (investment) of equipment not able to be used....ie coin would tank
and likely stay tanked in price IMHO, would be too much of a boat anchor on development etc, folk would move on to other projects with
such a failure, again IMHO.