When you have those low diff periods on straks then the big hashes waiting for the drop will take majority of the blocks and leave after the diff raises up.
Same on XSH, so profit for regular miners is 2-3x less than the calculated value.You cannot take this into consideration because it's random and actually one miner gets the correct calculated rewards
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About your second question. I believe that polling every N minutes simulates the "weighted based on time" average quite nicely.
Why? Cause the estimated rewards just match what I have mined for the last 24h. Afterall thats all that matters.
If I was to name it then "Normalized time spent mining average difficulty" would be close.
For sure we dont want a simple avg here and the 24h value on wtm should not be interpreted as one.
I get it, belief and coincidences. Sorry, but simple average will remain the only reasonable way for me to calculate theoretical rewards that can be compared to each other, until someone shows a better mathematical method. Currently no profit calc has all the correct average difficulties.Why? Cause the estimated rewards just match what I have mined for the last 24h. Afterall thats all that matters.
If I was to name it then "Normalized time spent mining average difficulty" would be close.
For sure we dont want a simple avg here and the 24h value on wtm should not be interpreted as one.