Post
Topic
Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
SebastianJu
on 21/12/2013, 20:55:16 UTC
I love this business model. I have invested a bit and will probably invest more. I'd like to make some suggestions:

1. Maximum bet should be whatever gives the highest return to Just-Dice (following the Kelly Criterion). Not only it increases our expected profit, but it attracts more people looking to hit the jackpot. And people hitting a gigantic jackpot is also great for marketing. If some risk adverse investors prefer to have lower returns and volatility, they can simple divest a portion of their actual share. Another option, if it's cheap enough to implement, would be letting investors choose how much they are willing to risk in a single bet.

2. Customers should be treated with much more respect. Stop calling them "whales" and that kind of things. You are doing exactly the opposite of what "serious" casinos do, specially brick and mortar ones. Customers must feel comfortable betting at Just Dice. We have to try to make them feel good even when they lose, so it's more likely that they come back. People don't like feeling stupid.

3. I don't get why some of you complain so much when some customers make a lot of money. Don't you understand that they are losing in the long run? I wish we had thousands of high rollers gambling all day. They win sometimes, it's inevitable, they wouldn't be willing to participate if they couldn't win. Every time they bet, we win 0.01 of that amount, that's the only thing that matters. There's no winning strategy, each bet has the same negative expected value. The only thing that we must care about is people being able to bet profitably, by knowing what the dice result will be.

4. We should give more options to customers. For example, whether the next dice roll will be odd or not. Or whether it will finish with a 5. There are lots of possible options. I know they can be "made" by defining the chance you want to have for the next bet, but there's people that prefers to bet on something else than higher/lower than X. Or, even better, add more casino games, using the same bankroll.

Even though im new too... your points are something i really support. The behaviour has to change. If the risk or thrill is too much for someone then either dont invest or maybe JD might give a changeable investor risk option (I even would like to see kelly > 1%).

And a more interesting player experience is the root of attracting more players... which at the end is the power running that website.

I can imagine... if there is a $-Value beneath the max profit... it will work wonders in the brains of players... i mean even with the current exchange price of 630USD the 170.83BTC would translate to 107,622.90 USD. Thats really something dont you think?



I have read wikipedia about kelly criterion but i dont really get how much bigger the risk is when using kelly 2% instead 1%. I mean doesnt it mean for JD that at kelly 1% 1% of the house can be won. I see JD is only at 0.5% what is even below the optimum kelly describes. But even with 2%... its a percent value... the house cant really be beaten this way or am i wrong? It can go down very much but each new bet with max win of the house 2% means the house will be less than before... so the max win will be less then. If it would be a fixed value then of course... at 2% the house could be beaten in 50 wins. Which sounds like it will happen very rare. But its not even a fixed value. Its a percent value. That means you cant win back the losses as fast as you could with fixed values but the same goes with the losses. They will slow down. I dont see yet why 2% should be so much worse than 1%.

By the way... i really would like to see the optimum kelly criterion at JD again. I mean if someone calculates whats the optimum value then i dont see why a scary investor should be able to change this. Dooglus changed it at the end but as far as i read someone convinced him who was feared of whales and the more. I really would like an alternative here. First the optimum kelly 1% is calculated and proved so it should be used as standard. And secondly... each investor should be able to set his own risk level.

I might donate something for this feature being implemented and i guess others would too. Because that way scared investors and bullish investors could play this to the fullest.