In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.
WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.
So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.
You are comparing pears to oranges. Why should bitcoin behave the same way the stock market has?
Apart from that, statistics are constructions we make to understand the past, but they usually fail to predict the future, and when they fail, the new data is included in the new statistics.
How would you follow this sequence? 1,2,3,4
The obvious answer seems: 5,6,7,8. But if you see that it is followed by 1,2,3,4, you will change your prediction about the following number.
So, if you have a sequence like: 1,2,3,4,1,2,3,4 how would you follow it?
The obvious answer seems: 1,2,3,4. But again, depending on what you see after you will have to change your predictions.