Did a quick and nasty chart to see how things would look if the pattern repeated 2013-2015.
If the worst is that we hit a low of $4k

Elwar only 6 months late to the party:
So bitcoin around $4200 incoming
But on the way down, the price could not hold at all even with the Bitfinex manipulator blowing millions trying to prop it up at $9k buying thousands of coins there, so levels like that are going to be hard ceilings for a long while. Then when it does go to $4000's, areas like $6500 are also going to be major resistance.
This of course all assumes the scamming Bitfinex owners don't attempt some massive, fraudulent Tether pump to try and prop it up again in the near future which could take the price to wherever, but there's nobody that exists to chase that pump, so it would just flop back down again. You will probably also have some capitulation moment in the $4000's where some big holder or miners throw in the towel flash crashing it to $3000.