Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Elwar
on 30/06/2018, 07:01:24 UTC
These single large pumps are not good indicators of a turnaround. High volume rise over the course of a day would do it. Not a single jump.

Bitcoin is still under $10k  Cry

There seem to be a lot of ways in which a trend can reverse.. one of them does involve getting some kind of BIG up candle, but sometimes we get trickle too...

Many of us should realize that it can be quite difficult to recognize or figure out a reversal... remember late 2015 and early 2016 - even into early 2017.  In October/November 2015 there was a pump from upper $200s to $500, and then a recovery and then nearly a six month question about whether BTC prices were going to go above $500.  Such $500 price point was again challenged after the August 2016 Bitfinex crash, and thereafter $800 was questioned (including considerations of returning to $500) in February/March 2017 which seemed to revolve around whether various alt coins were a threat towards BTC's dominance and questions about whether BTC scaling was going to resolve...

Personally, I even had my own doubts about when that 2013/2014 trend had reverted into a bull market, and I found the May 2016 push above $500 to be a pretty strongly convincing sign.. in spite of the subsequent FUD spreading and questioning of the strength of BTC and the then upwards BTC price momentum. 

In our current BTC market situation, getting above $10k and staying above $10k might be our new $500 threshold point that needs to be be breached before a certain level of largely unambiguous confidence is achieved (regarding reversal and resumption of the bull market).

I believe the reversal was when we had like 2 months of relative stability in the price. We were less volatile than the Brazilian Real and for a moment we were even more stable than the British Pound. That's a good solid bottom to form the base of the cup for a cup and handle rise.