I have officially retired from attempting to understand the market dynamics of Monero. Why does it go up when it goes up? Why does it go down when it goes down? I have come to terms with the fact that I have no effing clue. I know why I own it and I know why I hold it and I'll sell it the day I see a better value proposition for what ever price it is that day. That is just going to have to be good enough.
I gave up long ago.
Monetary status is a spontaneously emergent product of human action, not a rational product of human design. Individuals act out of self-interest, and technological possibilities and the economic realities of supply and demand shape the outcome of their actions, providing them with incentives to persist, adapt, change, or innovate. A spontaneous monetary order emerges from these complex interactions; it is not something that is conferred through academic debate, rational planning, or government mandate.
- Saifedean Ammous, Can Bitcoin's Volatility Be Tamed, 2018
In the absence of asymmetrical information, the only way to be an effective speculator is to transport value through time by formulating a plausible thesis for long-term value, and betting the current price is out of sync with this target. Short-term price action is the realm of insider information, which sadly, I am lacking. Everyone else, by definition, is dumb money.