I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.
Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a
major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.
I have been charting data for the network and for many pools for almost two years. The data is not pareto distributed, rather the average "luck" per n rounds is erlang distributed. PM me of you want more details, otherwise check out
.