I agree with you. In 2017, most of the icos were profitable, and now even the best do not collect hard cap....If 2017 was the year of the ICO, 2018 will be the year of the great ICO hangover. 
I am afraid it might turn out exactly as you said, looking back in retro perspective. In 2017 things were indeed brighter regarding ICOs. But there have been some ICO that did quite well like Quarkchain. So you can still find the right gems and they will do well also in a bearmarket. But the risks are much greater nowadays.