Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 03/07/2018, 18:13:08 UTC
i spent coins early on whenever i had the chance just to support the ecosystem and support vendors who accepted btc. at todays prices i dont even want to think about the value of the coins i more or less blew just to support the ecosystem, but i dont regret it a bit. after all its we who are proving the value of btc. we need to prove it "just works." to me that btc was well spent.

Regarding your substantive point, cited above, I have pretty much maintained a system in which I replace any bitcoins that I spend, and even though I don't go out of my way to spend bitcoins, if I find an opportunity to spend them that does not seem to be too much of a burden, then will soon thereafter replace any spent bitcoins.  I was a lot more adamant and nervous to replace them right away in the early 2014 to the early-to-mid 2016 time period when I was engaging in a lot more BTC accumulation (largely establishing my BTC postion - at least up to late 2014 and a kind of maintenance of BTC holdings thereafter). 

These days a remain a lot less nervous about immediately replacing any BTC that I might spend, but I still attempt to reasonably plug the dollar amounts of any spent coins into my authorized buy back amounts.  So for example, let's say that I go out and I see a 5% discount on a $1,000 product, if I buy with bitcoins (only way to get the discount is with bitcoins).  I would be like "wow", that seems like a decent enough incentive for me to spend some bitcoins.  Therefore, I spend $1,000 in bitcoins to buy the product, with a $6,300 exchange rate. (actually, 5% means that the seller is giving me the equivalent of $315 extra for my BTC ($6,300 x .05), which is $6,615. 

In the 2014-2016 period, I would nearly immediately lock in the 5% profits by buying back BTC immediately around $6,300.  These days, I might let the profits ride a little bit.  Therefore with the $1,000, for example, I might set buy-back orders at $100 increments, or some other reasonable ladder down the chain.. So maybe I conclude that $6700 is about as low as is reasonable in our current BTC trading range so I would set about 6 buy orders of a bit larger than $1,000 ($1,000/6 = $167)... maybe around $200 for each buy back order at $6,200, $6,100, $6,000, $5,900, $5,800 and $5,700) .. so if all of the orders fill, I end up buying back around $1,200 worth of BTC for the $1,000 that I spent.  One other tip is that I would not set my buy back orders exactly at the round numbers of the $100 increments, but instead set the orders a bit above the $100 increments in order to increase the likelihood that they will fill and not reverse just prior to filling at the round numbers where everyone (including BIG whales) tend to quickly set their attempts at BTC price manipulation orders.

i had been a btc miner (around 2011-2013 or so when gpus could do it), not a buyer, of btc, although now i occasionally also buy some. so it was more or less like continuous dollar cost averaging buying. so the coins i mined back in the day (which is the bulk of my current stack) i never replenished as i spent them back then. i mined new ones anyway so i was spending profit, and just wanted to test and use the new ecosystem.

Actually, that is another way to accomplish a kind of spending without replenishing - especially if you feel that you are sufficiently in profits and also that you might be a bit over leveraged on the bitcoin side.  Accordingly, it might NOT matter in great detail about the exact BTC price or whether it is going up or down, that you are just spending some of your profits.

Even though I never mined, I have had similar conceptions about how to manage my bitcoin stash in comparison to the rest of my financial investments.

There have been times in which I have overleveraged (or overinvested) in bitcoin a bit, so at points when the price goes above my "overleveraged" buy in price, then I don't mind selling a bit extra, even if the price is only a few percentage above the price in which I had bought the BTC.   

So, in that sense, similar to you, some of the coins are considered long term HODL coins, and other coins are "playing around" coins.

replenishing coins sold with new ones is the best way for most people looking to build up their stash while taking advantage of btcs strengths for purchases. your strategy is a good one. currently i mine alts with gpus and exchange them for btc so i still replenish btc although its not much.

I agree that it is interesting how each of us has differing factors, and even differing entrance points that change how we weigh the factors.  I recognize that even with miners there is a certain speculative aspect, and sometimes the variations in speculation can provide some explanation to the seemingly exponentially increasing hash rate that does not necessarily correlate with BTC price.  So, some miners, even smaller players, have greater abilities to cushion themselves from volatility or to speculate that even if there are periods of mining at low profits or even a loss, that future prices could more than make up for the low profits/loss periods.  Also, some experiential aspect of mining can cause someone to want to continue to mine and to contribute, learn and interact with the crypto space, even though strictly speaking there could be more profits (and mobility/liquidity) from merely buying the various coins instead of mining them.  Further, hahahaha.. the lottery aspect of mining a variety of coins in which some of them could upwardly explode and to off-set the costs/losses of mining some of the other coins.