Bitcoin difficulty is again expected to rise by 12% in about a week. -
https://fork.lol/pow/retargetAre miners still making profit?
The break even point must almost be exceeded ...
What are you trying to say, exactly?
I understand that I should not be egging on a beartard (PM pumper) to explain, but perhaps there is an outside chance that you have something substantially meaningful to say?
By the way, you understand that mining profitability remains considerably variable, and there is considerable speculation in mining too, so some miners are going to be ready, willing and able to operate at a loss for a considerable amount of time.. in other words there time horizons regarding profitability can be quite drug out.
Furthermore, you understand that there can be gamesmanship with mining too, especially if there could be opportunities that the directing of mining can be used as a means to pump the bcash attack vector, and the calculations regarding timing of attacks might be short windows and momentum based, too.
What I am trying to say is that miners will not mine unless they are profitable.
So either they will switch off some miners so the hashrate goes down (which I see as unlikely)
Or the price will follow the increasing hashrate (e.g. miners stop selling their BTC for a period of time to reduce BTC supply on the market) which should result in a higher BTC price.
I just find it an interesting topic :-)
Fair enough. Each of us has our perspective, and as I already mentioned, I don't conclude that any of us can draw very much of a short term BTC price prediction based on one indicator, such as mining, and likely that mining has a longer timeline perspective.
One thing you can recognize with mining is that the hash rate continues to go up, and such exponential ongoing increasing of hash rate does not seem to be directly correlated to short term BTC price movements.
So, even though I agree with you that miners might engage in strategic behaviors, such as shutting off their mining equipment, there are other miners who are attempting to exploit inefficiencies in other ways, and so the hashrate continues to go up, which seems to show a long term bullishness towards bitcoin prices and security.. and ongoing security that would likely cost quite a bit to actually attack the bitcoin network - even though there may be some of that switching between bcash and bitcoin that serves as a kind of playing around with changes in hashrate and perceptions of changes in bitcoin security and affects prices, too.
Edited above for clarity and style (if one can call it that)