If/when we have a final capitulation, the price will stay higher than the low we have already had . . . It's psychology, support has been identified, and everyone will be racing to beat everyone else and buy before we dip to the support. If it coincides with a series of bad news, then maybe we would dip below, not likely unless a very specific set of circumstances arises.
While I do think that the low will probably be higher than our previous low, I disagree that "support has been identified".
1. The last two high volume days ended in 570 and 455, respectively. On bitstamp it was actually 560 and 380, a huge difference. There was no higher low, indicating a support. Instead, a possible downtrend is indicated. If you take april, on the other hand, there were three high volume crashes ending in 55, 50, and 78, confirming that a hard support had been found at 50.
2. The last bounce was influence by China. All exchanges were following btcchina when it suddenly started buying out thousands of btc. Now if the chinese exchanges get taken out, we don't know what'll happen.