Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin's future is DOWN
by
Predict0r
on 08/07/2018, 23:20:08 UTC
Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source?  For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course...  lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

Quote
How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year.  I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months.  Maybe two years.  Maybe $600 or even $800.  Look at the curve - it shows the main idea:  down, down, down.   Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details.  I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it.  I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin.  The profit would still be huge.  However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical.  A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto.  Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

Quote
How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better.  Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss.  And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated.  Those are huge benefits.  And I sleep well at night.