The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.
Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.
In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.
I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence
Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.
Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.
In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.
I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence
Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.