Puppet of course these numbers will be off but I think it would be worth the effort just to get the right order of magnitude. I would say the different views people posting here have of total hashrate in july differs from 20PH to 2000PH. We must be able to close that range a little bit.
Even if the conclusion is something like 100PH to 300PH (could be something different) I think it would have been worth the effort.
Cointerra is to low. I remember reading somewhere that they have batches of 1000, could it just be that darcimer's posting just is the number of units not the hashrate, meaning we double the numbers.
Regarding BFL, are volumes of >10x (18000 units) really realistic? This is question not a statement. Even if Josh thinks he can produce and sell 1000 monarcs every day, there must be a more realistic number for us to close the range between 20PH and 2000PH i july. One assumption could be that BFL will only be able to push on half hashing power of KnCminer before Q2 and set BFL to something like 7500PH TH in Q2. I might be completly off here. Discuss.
Even if the conclusion is something like 100PH to 300PH (could be something different) I think it would have been worth the effort.
Cointerra is to low. I remember reading somewhere that they have batches of 1000, could it just be that darcimer's posting just is the number of units not the hashrate, meaning we double the numbers.
Regarding BFL, are volumes of >10x (18000 units) really realistic? This is question not a statement. Even if Josh thinks he can produce and sell 1000 monarcs every day, there must be a more realistic number for us to close the range between 20PH and 2000PH i july. One assumption could be that BFL will only be able to push on half hashing power of KnCminer before Q2 and set BFL to something like 7500
BFL are infamous for overpromising, Im not going to bet on when they will deliver, I would never order from them, but the reality is also that its now a 100+ employee company (Knc is what, 10 employees?) that has been raking in preorders for an eternity now and have been shipping close to 1000 miners per day recently. Miners that are more complex to manufacture and assemble than Monarch. Considering they have not yet dropped their price one penny, I suspect they are not short on orders.
As for the combined network hashrate, IMO a better way to estimate it is simply looking at the profitability. As long as mining is substantially more profitable than it costs in electricity, the hashrate will go up as fast as all vendors combined can deliver. At todays BTC price, and assuming ~$0.1-0.2/KWH that means a race towards 500- 1000 PH. Anyone who thinks we will be at 20PH next July is smoking some weird stuff.
Here is a chart:
