It seems to me, you, peolpe, overloocking one substantional circumstance in you research regarding Brand New members. Thing is, you often can`t register and not get a ban at once even from you own IP adress, espesially if you are a TOR user. But sometimes (as was in my case) you just randomly get some point of evel (like, about 10 or smth) and can`t post a thing till you pay some fee, less than comission. So, naturally most of new users don`t know about IP ban feature untill they try to register and in most cases, unsuccessfully. So, here comes another acc or two or three, and most of them are pictured green in that diagram. They`re just dead accounts, nobody will ever post from `em, that`s why this number of Brand News.
If you want real numbers, you should get a quantity of IP banned accs and exclude such ones from calculations.
Do you mean they only find out about the evil IP after the account has been created? If so that would explain the numbers as the botnets would have created most of those accounts and never been able to use them.
Yes, that`s exactly what I mean. And it`s not necessary botnets (though it may be one of reasons), real new users are getting banned too. As I understand it`s aboun dynamic IPs that most providers use in Eastern Europe, for example. Whole node get marked as evil one if even one user uses TOR or trying to make some troubles.