So guys, after reading a bit aroud this incoming ETF thing, I didn't decided yet whether this event will pump or dump the price!
Plus it is not clear whether this time the application will be finally approved!
What do you think?
None of the previous attempts were successful so why would this one be any different?
I dont forsee it gaining approval, no.
I do hope Im wrong though because if it was approved I think the price would pump significantly.
It has a chance of approval because it is positioned as 'NOT for plebs' ETF and we all know that SEC only cares about that crowd.
Even with $6000 btc, each share in this ETF will cost $150,000.
Bingo. An ETF for retail investors would be summarily shot down. This ETF is for the wealthy. The SEC will not squander an opportunity to help the rich get richer.
It's the first step toward getting a retail ETF for the plebs approved. The wealthy elites need to be able to get in at the ground floor though, since that's where most of the money will be made. I'd expect the first pleb ETF to be approved when Bitcoin is at $50K+.
I also think that because of this ETF will be approved. Moreover, SEC could have rejected it immediately like the previous requests, but instead it opened a comment page. As for the effect on the price, the expected reaction of the eventual approval will be 20%-ish pump followed by a steady growth until the ETF's start trading. The most conservative guess is by Dec to be in the zone of $18K. There are still some fears among buyers because of the current 7 month lasting bearish trend, so to break the $20K will be tough. However, we should not underestimate the significance of the $billions to enter the bitcoin markets, so unlike the effect of the futures, I expect new ATH's next year.