I'm quite sure my analysis beats yours Here it is: There are ASIC based mining rigs coming online right now, and there's a startup that will within a few months sell these to anyone who wants them.

An ASIC rig is mining coins at an order of magnitude cheaper than GPU rigs. Thus, the fundamentals backing bitcoin (= how cheap can a miner sell them and still make a profit) are currently dropping by a factor of ten, or so. The upside is that this is the last (CPU -> GPU -> ASIC) such disruption for the foreseeable future.

But feel free to practice your http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia - it's fun to watch