In my opinion, the price is formed by good old supply and demand rule. The demand comes from people's expectations about the future value discounted to the present. If the expected future value increases so will the price and vice versa.

I've never been one to trade anything based quantitative analysis. I look for indicators like new merchants accepting it, or institutional investors buying as a sign the value will go up. And regulatory problems, bugs, etc that might be a sign of the price going down as you can see in the past weeks