Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Visualizing the Bitcoin ETF from Gold ETF history
by
nasibaha20012
on 23/07/2018, 16:13:15 UTC
infographic is not thought out well

firstly. golds preETF ATH was $24k  ATL 10k    post ETF ATH $60k  (rounded)
pre-ATH to post-ATH = 225%
ATL to post-ATH =600%

so lets take bitcoins $20k ATH X225% =$45k next ATH... not $62k
so lets use bitcoins $7500.. x 600% = $45k... not 62k


so just based on numbers.. the estimates should be for  bitcoin ~$45k not $62k.. math is simple

then what needs to be taken into account is that gold had a gold rush of "gold for cash" retailers/services.. which pushed prices. unless bitcoin is going to have loads of ATM's  of taking in bitcoin to then publish an increase in 'spot' price..  you wont see the same inpact.
gold has a more complicated multilayer mechanism of what impacts golds prices.. but unless bitcoin had th same access and more aggressive middlemen control of the spread to push the price up.. we wont see the same pattern

the info graphic did not convey any understanding on the aspects of what caused golds surge post 2003
and yet the info graphic STUPIDLY over hyped the impact of an ETF on bitcoin to somthing far more than ETF affect on gold

You "may" be right. You "may" be wrong. The creator is definitely expecting it and I hope it will be.

I think the infographic does not care about your perfect calculation. TA was never correct in bitcoin. All Technical Analysis (Including your perfect math) failed to foretell. One thing I will tell u is that:

EFT is not even announced nor it can be approved or not nobody knows. Do you? But the BTC price is pumping. The infographic is not showing from what bitcoin price the ETF will start. It could be $9k or 14k. Gold started from $10.8k  in years. Bitcoin reached that ATH is split of months. As per this infographic, the ETF should start from $13.7k. Look and pay close attention to the ETF line where the creator is captioning attention to. He is f## too cool to be that optimistic.

Anyway, great job to the creator and his passion for Crypto. I will congratulate you later if we reach $62+k. If not, no worries, we will cross it anyhow.

Keep it up What's on Crypto!