So why did you pose those elaborate (albeit wrong) mining scenarios then challenge us to fault your maths? (rhetorical Q)
Those mining scenarios are neither wrong nor elaborate. It's a simple scenario I created because people seem to be expecting AM to just recapture 10% of the network with their new chips. I was highlighting the fact that even if AM didn't sell any hardware, they couldn't even maintain a 5% share for more than two rounds under those conditions.
What? So you're saying AM goes out of business? 20Ph and that's that?
No, I'm not. Friedcat has claimed the first batch will between 2 and 20 Ph/s. How long will it take to produce a new batch of miners? What will be the size of that batch? What will the network hash rate be when the miner start to come online, etc.
This is the same mistake people made when they were buying shares for 4+ BTC. The 2nd batch of chips will be nowhere near as profitable as the 1st batch.
I appreciate your opinion, but we have very different perspectives. A lot of this is subjective, some of the numbers rubbery at best, there's too many unknowns, life is short. I'll leave it at that.