In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.
my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.
Can I ask, do your models cater for the virality that Bitcoin is imbued with now? Do they cater for the Hodl philosophy (no joke!). Is it possible in your opinions as analysts accurately to incorporate these elements?
can you imagine an empirical method to quantify the effects of these things on the price?
unfortunately, it is difficult to say exactly how (and when!) these things will affect price, and so it is easiest just to rely on the information that is already priced in, which (under the efficient market hypothesis) should be
all of it, but in reality is at least most of it. in this way, direct price analysis
already accounts for the effects of the factors you mentioned.
--arepo