In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.
my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.
Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far.
No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).
you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information.
--arepo
hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept?