So, was my argument wrong?
yes, it was wrong. Your argument was that AM was already overvalued around 2.5 btc or so, and that upcoming competition would limit the profits and share price. While competition eventually materialized, it only did so after several competition failures and share prices increased more than 100% after you were claiming they would start decreasing.
That's like saying the world will come to an end, and sure, you're eventually right, but only after being wrong for a very long time.
Just because the maths gives results you don't want to see, doesn't mean those are wrong.
and how about the maths for ActM and Labcon you were so fond of? reality didn't follow your theoretical examples, did it?
just because you can tweak the math to match your argument doesn't make you right (as history has shown)