Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis
by
skyhigh
on 06/08/2011, 18:19:36 UTC
I might share my thoughts here as well. Smiley

I think it is way more likely price will bounce higher temporarily from current sub $8. It will stay in a trading range of 7.50 to 9.00, with a possible rally as high as 11.00 in the conditions are right. This would be the ultimate push from a hardcore fans with extra cash. You need to understand that we had 350k volume in the a span of the week and most of this money is still sitting on exchanges. If bulls would somehow be able to start a small rally it could get legs for a short time.

Other than that price dropped 15+% today and 40% since 5 days ago. There was more than enough carnage % wise but this wasn't really met with high enough volumes. There isn't really any need for the market to continue to drop any further today or tomorrow. It still could happen but it is more likely that price would stabilize in 7.50 to 9.00 range. Daytraders would go to work and scalp this thing for a while. Price could somehow magically hover above $7.50 and wait for a new re-target in 7-10 days. By that time we will get a much clearer picture of what miners are thinking about the new price range.

Where to next ?

Lower it will go, easier it will be to find the demand. Then the accumulation process begins. We will have to wait that all the weak hands exit and fresh money goes to work. It might be as low as $5.00 but exact price isn't so important at this stage. Accumulation might take a long while, because there is/will be so many disappointed miners/investors wanting to go out.  Last but very important factor will be Satoshi's stack of at least 1.500,000 coins. How many does he need to sell and what are  his plans for the remaining part of the stack.