I've come to realise that no-one knows where this is going.
Lines on charts, candlesticks, Elliot waves, it's all bollocks.
All I know is that XMR is fungible, private, sovereignless money.
There is a very limited number of units (measured in 20-25 million over the next 15 years), ergo eventually, with use, the price will rise.
There is no better money currently available. The price may go up or down in the short term, however, in the long term I just cannot see this not appreciating.
Anyone who tells you they know where the price is going in the short term in the absence of asymmetric information is the definition of dumb money. There is a LOT of dumb money in crypto. It's mostly dumb money in fact, but that is changing. If some guy on youtube can predict the future with charts and lines, he would start a hedge fund and be a billionaire, not begging for handouts and shilling affiliate links to their teenage followers.
What we are seeing now is the arrival of the professional traders. The patterns we have relied on when early adopter "whales" with no trading specialization were able to pump and dump reliably are no longer in control of the market. Minor news events used to move the market 20%. Now we get a hardware wallet and nothing happens. The professionals have much deeper pockets and much more patience and they will shake this tree until every last weak hand cries uncle and lets go. They will bleed this thing for every last drop of blood. Then we pump. But it won't be with their own money, it will be their customers. Institutional custodial solutions and fiat pipes that can handle billions. I've got my popcorn ready.