In July 2013, despite the correction being so short, I felt true despair. I don't feel that now. People are still so hopeful. I still think a mid-term bull trap and long term sideways correction is possible, but I wouldn't plan on an end to the bear market just yet.
Remember also: sometimes the second leg down ends with a higher low (2012, 2013). So a continued bear market doesn't necessarily mean new lows, but it does mean distribution cycle and no new highs.
Remember also: sometimes the second leg down ends with a higher low (2012, 2013). So a continued bear market doesn't necessarily mean new lows, but it does mean distribution cycle and no new highs.
You have way more experiences as you had in 2013, so you cant really compare your personal felling with those at that time. I am sure that big part of those that entered crypto in 2017 right now fells quite desperate. Most already left, They join to make easy fast money, but all they got was having zero profit or even a loss.
Maybe that's true. It sure doesn't seem like it.
I'm not talking about personal feelings, so much as observing the emotions of those around me.
Have you seen the bubble chart meme? I think it applies to these cycles pretty well (not necessarily in shape and price movement; I'm just talking about sentiment). The "denial" and "return to normal" phases are characterized by lots of hope. By contrast, "capitulation" and "despair" are characterized by, well, capitulation and despair.
It still seems like people are quite hopeful. They're hopeful that the ETF or Bakkt will save them from a prolonged bear market, and that the worst is over. So they haven't given up hope.
I believe we are close to the bottom. It will end the bear market. But ending of bear market does not mean that Bull market will start. We will have to wait for it until next year.
That's quite possible. There are usually two kinds of bottoms: capitulation bottoms (like the bubble chart) and sideways base bottoms. I'd love to see the latter, but have to wait and see.