If it goes to -100% one day then +100% the next day there is manipulation going on, even though in that particular case there is no indication of stealing. If there is manipulation going on, it's very important to know that.

If there is manipulation, then most likely there is also stealing going on. Why would there be manipulation of the luck in the pool without stealing? Can anyone explain this?

I'm trying to show that there is a high probability of manipulation of the pool going on, not that there is stealing going on. Once we determine that there is manipulation, it will be easy to conclude that there is stealing, unless the long term output of the pool is above the expected amount.

So having it shoot up to +70% increases the chance that there is manipulation going on, just as -40% would, although it is hard to figure out where the pool got those extra solved blocks from if it was manipulation. Why? maybe somebody is trying to divert attention away from the low luck days, and if so it worked fairly well because people on the forum who started talking about the bad luck quit talking about it when luck shot way up.

And the probability of the 5 day period is is 0.0036 (277:1) not 0.01.

If someone wants to find out what the expected(?) deviation for positive and negative luck is on the pool that would be nice. Those are the numbers you would get if you took all the positive and then negative values over a very long time on a normal non manipulated pool and averaged them.