Re: You want the bear market to stop? Here are some things you can do :)
IMO we can't compare the previous crash and its reasons to the current one because back then there were completely different things driving it.
-lower exchange liquidity, lower market cap, less countries involved, basically no laws and regulations, almost no real adoption
And at times like that we had china opening exchanges in 2013 that ended up faking volume and driving the price up hand in hand with bot willy. In 2014 it all went down to hell with the collapse of the biggest exchange and right when the bear market was starting to stabilize came chinese exchange bans that completely nullified the whole 2013 rally. All factors that drove the price down were lying dead in early 2015. Such a crash with the current state of affairs is hard to imagine.
You're partly right, in my opinion, and that's also the reason why I can imagine that there is a possibility we've already seen the low in the $6000 area which holds surprisingly strong.-lower exchange liquidity, lower market cap, less countries involved, basically no laws and regulations, almost no real adoption
And at times like that we had china opening exchanges in 2013 that ended up faking volume and driving the price up hand in hand with bot willy. In 2014 it all went down to hell with the collapse of the biggest exchange and right when the bear market was starting to stabilize came chinese exchange bans that completely nullified the whole 2013 rally. All factors that drove the price down were lying dead in early 2015. Such a crash with the current state of affairs is hard to imagine.
But on the other hand, there are other factors that can lead to instability and volatility, and could drive us to another "capitulation crash" like in January 2015. The most important of these factors is the sheer number of totally worthless ICO projects and low-quality altcoins that have get far too much attention in 2017 and early 2018. Some users of these coins are still hodling even if they've lost 90% of their value, and even they will eventually capitulate totally. And Bitcoin can be driven down by this phenomenon - take into account that the "dominance" value currently sits only at 50%, and in 2013/14 it was at 80-90%. So the Bitcoin problems in 2013/14 were largely "homemade" (Mt. Gox etc.) while now the "crypto market" as a whole could drive Bitcoin a bit further down.
However, that's far from sure, and so there is some room for optimism. Above all if many people follow the advices I gave in the OP
I currently think there is a 30-40% probability we've already seen the low of this cycle, while there is a 60-70% likelihood that we see lower lows. Maybe not 3000, but 4500-5000 is very realistic if there are no positive news nor a boost in adoption.