Adams Smith wrote that the price of all things are equivalent to the human labor involved in their exploitation.   The price of gold is determined by the cost in human labor to mine it.  It can then be exchanged for another commodity which takes an equal amount of labor to create it.

Over time I have been able to find ways to place a price on stocks which I can use to evaluate what their value is to me.   I can then buy and sell based on what I determine as value at any time.   

I’m not a currency speculator but I also believe the US dollar is being killed.   I don’t like having much of a cash position but would rather be fully invested.   At this time what I see is a highly inflated value of the S&P 500.  Any bonds other the very short term bonds come with too much risk tied to the Feds low interest rate policy and the increasing money supply along with quantitative easing which is placing too much fake money on the Feds balance sheet.

After many years I have developed a feel or intuition to tell me when prices are out of line.   When it comes to bitcoin I am at a loss.   I like the core concept of bitcoin and long term it seem like it will all work out but it’s value is another issue.   I just don’t have a feel for what it’s worth in exchange for food, a house, a car, gold equivalent.  It seem that it should be relatively close in value to the cost incurred by the bitcoin miners.   How do I find out what the current cost is to mine bitcoins.  It cost to mine a well know number kind of like the PE for a stork or index?

I have started to buy small amounts which I plan to hold but I really don’t like the volatility.  It is also difficult to invest in something when I don’t really have any history to give me a clue of somethings value.  I doubt I would hold if bitcoin went over 5000.  It seems to be moving a bit too fast.