Your analysis is good but I disagree $1700 is the peak.
There is every reason to believe AU/oz will break $2000 within 12 months. Every fiat currency is in shambles right now except the Swiss franc, Chinese yuan and yens. Stock markets are crashing like the Titanic.

I've been holding since prices were at $1100 per ounce, I'd still buy in at $1.7k if I had significant extra fiat right now
(which I don't, I'm terrified of holding $ or € long term right now)