It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them.
Pretty much everyone bought October Jupiters when btc was hovering around $100. So me and 7000-9000 others were terrible at timing hardware purchases by that logic
In case it's unclear, I meant October units when I said "2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI". I wasn't talking about November units, just so that's clear.
November units are a different equation - what is the BTC ROI on those? 10-20BTC? I vaguely remember Phoenix saying he bought around the $350/btc mark.
November Jupiters were priced at 5k and were still available when the BTC exchange rate started going up, so I think a lot of folks picked them up from KNC for between 10-15 BTC, which was a pretty good deal.
Early Neptune orders will likely still be profitable if the difficulty is ~3 times as high as it is now. If it goes much higher than that before Neptunes ship, then I'll start to get nervous...