We've discussed my stance elsewhere, notably that there will be overall deflation in certain asset classes and inflation in others. I apply what is relevant based on underlying aspects, especially capital flows.
There is no one-size-fits-all definition. I agree that we may not be on the same page. Best of luck with your trading - be nimble.
Maybe deflation near term and inflation after 1 or 2 yrs? Maybe were both predicting same scenarios but different times?
All economies and societies are dynamic. Inflation and deflation can occur concurrently across disparate asset classes and at various scales. We just tend to limit our perspectives by thinking in terms of static snapshots and linear projections.
you've said a coupla times that foreigners are much less dependent on the USD. explain this:
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-swap-lines-european-banks-2011-6also explain why most of the TARP funds back in 2008 were extended to foreign banks, esp European to bailout their individual overleveraged banks.
i'll tell you why. the USD is and remains the reserve currency of the world upon which other foreign central banks leverage their own currencies. its like a reverse pyramid with the USD at the bottom and extending outward to foreign currencies. 60% of loans worldwide are denominated in USD's. when the shit hits the fan all these foreign banks need USD swap lines to cover the imploding
assets debt.
we are now entering phase 2 of the crisis and you're going to see demand for USD increase significantly from here as Europe starts to implode.
edit: did June's swap lines have anything to do with stocks starting their roll in May? i think so.