History doesn't repeat itself. We could even see bitcoin testing new lows before going up again but your model can help people to gauge how close the market is bottoming. Another way to gauge market bottom is when the crypto market is boring and many people have already cut their losses.
Market isn't predictable, but Technical Analysis rely on previous support and resistance areas for future ones, this for me is the predictability of the market. A bull run is definitely on the horizon...
BTC might even test new lows before this happens. Let's be optimistic