Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Gold: I smell a trap
by
cypherdoc
on 10/08/2011, 12:42:10 UTC
An interesting audio interview: Why are people so eager to make predictions?  because there's no consequence for making wrong predictions.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/08/09/pm-freakonomics-why-are-we-so-bad-at-predicting-the-future/


did you not notice that i'm willing to bet him 100 BTC or $1000 to be held in escrow that the Dow will be lower one year from now than today?
I noticed. yes, it's a prediction. I don't bet on coin flips.

yes but it has a consequence. and i didn't ask you.  the offer was to miscreanity.
it's not a "consequence", statistically you got 50% chance to be right.


do you have any idea how ridiculous what you just said is?