... Bitcoin has been one of the more disruptive technologies in probably forever and it's just getting started, but it will probably be mostly remembered as being sort of a spark that ignited a lot more I'll bet.
You seem to be predicting the eventual downfall of Bitcoin. Any guess about which alt will be the successor and how long it will take?
'downfall' is a misnomer. I imagine that Bitcoin will be highly 'successful' in terms of utilization rates, valuations, and user satisfaction even if it does end up being operated by a handful of multi-nationals and some blacklist authority is fully operational. Most people don't care about that shit. But yes, I anticipate that it is more likely than not that this is the eventual path that Bitcoin will follow.
Hopefully what will happen is that simultaneously a variety of 'free' (to some degree or another) distributed crypto-currencies will develop and be used by entities for the benefit of people who willingly choose to support said entities.
I do not think it would be technically challenging to have exchange services find the natural valuations of any number of crypto-currencies. Nor do I think it should be very expensive for the end-user to use these exchanges. It's simply not a tough problem because the 'correct' state is one which is arrived at by nature. There is no 'wrong answer' to valuations provided that the exchanges can function free of interference. A natural consequence would be that the alternate crypto-currencies which are well managed and representative of a popular entity will hold higher values. The big sticking point here is that it must be recognized as a natural and global human right to freely participate in such interactions and it is far from a sure thing that our political leaderships will be very keen on this concept.
There will likely evolve a viable 'reserve' or 'balancing' crypto-currency. This is basically the function that XRP wishes to play in that Ripple monetary system I think. I had hopes that Bitcoin would fill that role, and it may not be to late because the transaction rate (block size) has not been increased yet and because there is still the potential to foul up blacklisting I think. But I'm expecting it more likely than not at this point that Bitcoin will blow it's chances here. As I've said before, the old fable about 'The Fisherman's Wife'* fits real well.
* The Western one...not the pornographic Japanese one involving penetration by slimy multi-armed creatures...though come to think of it that could have some applicability to the situation with Bitcoin and the Bitcoin Foundation and such as well...Hmmm...
I hate to admit it (to myself) I agree with most of you're argument. I disdain blacklisting and consider the concept the end of fungibility. Blacklisting will mean the end of Bitcoin for me. Bitcoin can, however, still be the next cool financial instrument to be used by the great unwashed masses. They are already quite comfortable with being controlled and obviously don't mind the constant surveillance of their finances because they allow the government to do it. TBF member businesses are posing as the company behind Bitcoin, negotiating with governments as the owner of Bitcoin and buying the devs. Get into bed with governments and the useful and unique qualities of Bitcoin will be destroyed.
The ideal behind the Bitcoin that I learned to appreciate can live on in another coin controlled by another collection of like minded people. Unfortunately, a multitude a problems must be overcome for that new coin to be the tool of financial freedom that I wanted Bitcoin to be. One problem is almost impossible to overcome and I see no solution available. Humans are corruptible and devs are humans. They can be employed by businesses that spring up around the new coin and develop the new coin into something the people don't want it to be. So we all abandon that coin and move to another one in an endless loop. I don't see an IOU or reserve system as a necessary component for a cryptocurrency and they already include a decentralized cryptographically secure accounting system. Open source is proving to work no better than closed source corporately controlled software works when the stakes are high.