... All the 2nd layer technology stuff like the lightning Network is only going to reduce fees drastically. ...
The Lightning Network makes Bitcoin micro-payments cost-effective. No one would pay a few cents or dollars for sending a few satoshis. Keep in mind that these transactions are nearly instant - it's something that won't be achieved on-chain. I guess that we won't bring zero confirmation transactions back.
Furthermore, increased adoption of Lightning Network will result in more on-chain transactions even if most transactions are off-chain because of the need to open and close channels. For example, if 10% of the world uses LN and opens/closes a channel once per year, that alone will generate 44 TPS, requiring (very roughly) 6 MB per block.
That's true. However, there are still many solutions which can increase the number of transactions per block (Schnorr signatures, MAST) without having to increase the block weight. Have you heard of channel factories? I have explained them
here.