Ninjastic
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: Martingale and Roulette
by
kurian
on 30/08/2018, 18:30:37 UTC
Quote from: Fatanut on August 30, 2018, 03:03:49 PM
Quote from: Betwrong on August 27, 2018, 09:00:49 AM
Quote from: slaman29 on August 17, 2018, 07:43:25 AM
Quote from: Sukut on August 15, 2018, 06:21:48 PM
A big LOL to this one. For the others, long as you have a big bankroll, you can make profit. That's it. Just have an infinitely big bankroll Cheesy

Now that I am thinking about it, I wonder if there's a casino with the biggest possible wager that would allow to maximize such a Martingale strategy? I know 999dice has 40 BTC max profit so that's 40 BTC on a x2 martingale which means you could go for a 36-streak martingale on x2 payout, starting at 1 satoshi and 36th bet at 34.36 BTC.

I suppose you could go all day autobet. Chances of hitting a losing streak 36 times in a row is 1 in 34 billion or something because of house edge.

If you can do 100k bets a day = 50,000 satoshi profit  average daily.

Chances then become that you bust 1 every 34,360 days, almost 100 years.

So if you only play for 1 year, you have a 1 in 100 chance of busting that. If you get away with this. you make BTC 0.1825

Worth risking 40 BTC?

First of, you need more than 40 BTC in your balance for using this strategy. To beat a losing streak of 36 times in a row with 1 satoshi as initial bet you need to have 2 to the power of 36 sats:

2^36 = 68,719,476,736

So, as you can see, it's 687 BTC which is much more than 40.

Secondly, although no less significantly, is wearing-out of your equipment working 24/7.

Although we can neglect the power consumption because it is $0.5 per day max for a laptop, I think no one would risk 687 BTC in order to earn 50k sats daily.
The 687BTC is actually for the 37th bet, not the 36th bet as you need 37 bets in order to recover from a 36 loss streak although the formula 2^36 is correct.

To prove how much you're going to be risking just to earn a small amount of money in martingaling, let's do the whole math to this:

(since the basebet = 1 satoshi, I didn't include it in the formula. The formula should have been, 1 satoshi x 2^0, 1 satoshi x 2^1, 1 satoshi x 2^2, and so on.)
Bet Number
   Formula   
Amount (satoshi)
Bet 1
2^0
1
Bet 2
2^1
2
Bet 3
2^2
4
Bet 4
2^3
8
Bet 5
2^4
16
Bet 6
2^5
32
Bet 7
2^6
64
Bet 8
2^7
128
Bet 9
2^8
256
Bet 10
2^9
512
Bet 11
2^10
1024
Bet 12
2^11
2048
Bet 13
2^12
4096
Bet 14
2^13
8192
Bet 15
2^14
16384
Bet 16
2^15
32768
Bet 17
2^16
65536
Bet 18
2^17
131072
Bet 19
2^18
262144
Bet 20
2^19
524288
Bet 21
2^20
1048576
Bet 22
2^21
2097152
Bet 23
2^22
4194304
Bet 24
2^23
8388608
Bet 25
2^24
16777216
Bet 26
2^25
33554432
Bet 27
2^26
67108864
Bet 28
2^27
134217728
Bet 29
2^28
268435456
Bet 30
2^29
536870912
Bet 31
2^30
1073741824
Bet 32
2^31
2147483648
Bet 33
2^32
4294967296
Bet 34
2^33
8589934592
Bet 35
2^34
17179869184
Bet 36
2^35
34359738368
Bet 37
2^36
68719476736

The total is exactly 137,438,953,471 satoshis (~1,374.39BTC) to recover from 36 loss streak. As I'm typing this, the value of that is $9,438,000. It seems like you can do a lot more with that amount of money and someone who's in possession of that amount of money can surely afford a private mentor or tutor which can teach him where to use the money either invest in business or simply becoming a better spender so he doesn't lose that amount of money over purchases that aren't so practical.

As you can see, we came up with these huge numbers because the growth in your bet in martingale method is exponential. At first, it doesn't seem much. But as the losing streak is increasing, your bet just to earn back your losses and that additional 1 satoshi "profit" is becoming more and more ridiculous. Gambling sites are known to have tremendous number for losing streaks in x2 multiplier and it's the reason why martingale never really worked in the long run.

To put an end to your desire of using the technique martingale, think about this. 50k sats per day is 0.0005BTC per day which is $3.43. Is $9,438,000 worth risking for $3.43 a day? Smiley And since the people who wants to gamble with a "mathematical formula" likes to treat gambling as a business, you're obviously a bad business man.


That's a good effort you have put to explain how it works. No one wants to risk $1000 for just $10. But when we use martingale strategy we keep on betting in hope of recovering back in next bet.