History doesn't repeat itself. We could even see bitcoin testing new lows before going up again but your model can help people to gauge how close the market is bottoming. Another way to gauge market bottom is when the crypto market is boring and many people have already cut their losses.
Isn't that the case already now? At my almost workplace everyone talked about crypto 6 months ago, then it was quietening down and now people moved on and rarely talk. Also the volume is low and google trends show record low search requests for all block chain related terms. If this is not the bottom than I don't what else needs to happen.