I voted $13-$15.  There's a lot of talk about a coming event that will cause a price bump by new investors/speculators entering the market following news stories about said event.  Leading up to the event I suspect there will be upward price pressure as speculators stock up in anticipation of the flood of interest.

Op your post is too rational in a such a highly risky and speculative market.  I agree that we are above the true value of BTC based on current supply and lack of demand.  Once the temporary interest of new money entering into the market subsides the price will gradually follow.  For the long term BTCs need to have a usefulness beyond speculative trading.  If merchants don't enter the market before interest wanes we will likely see a rather deep crash. 

Personally I would like to see $12+ in the near term so I can offload a few coins at a nice profit.

* puts away crystal ball *