Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Why bitcoin is very different from Ponzi/Pyramid/Bubble
by
Roger_Murdock
on 15/01/2014, 12:55:16 UTC
Inflation is still the key because money should be unattractive to hoard and should only be used as a tool in trading.

I disagree.  Remember that money isn't wealth. Instead, it represents your right to make an immediate claim on wealth, i.e. useful goods and services. When you don't exercise that claim immediately and instead save your money, the resources that would have gone into satisfying your present consumption remain available to be immediately used by others -- including new businesses. You've effectively made a loan to the remaining holders of the currency who do spend now whether for consumption or investment. (They're able to buy cheaper because there's now less money chasing the same number of resources.) And that's why savers are rewarded with increased purchasing power over time in an economy that uses sound money. In such an economy, deflation is simply the market-determined interest rate for an extremely low-risk loan that can be recalled at any time.

And when I say that it's a market-determined interest rate, I mean it.  People frequently argue against deflation by imagining absurdly unrealistic deflation rates, e.g. "Would you buy a car that costs 1000 bucks today if you knew that it would cost 500 tomorrow?" No, probably not. Very few people would. On the other hand, in that scenario, you'd have LOTS of sellers willing to sell you a car today for 1000 bucks. (Even if you need your car, why not sell it today and buy another one tomorrow at half price?) Lots of people willing to sell at that price and almost no one willing to buy = that won't be today's market clearing price. The actual rate of deflation will reach an equilibrium reflecting people's preferences.