Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Why martingale is PURE SHIT.
by
kurian
on 06/09/2018, 17:05:51 UTC
I have found a well explained post from an another topic which would obviously make you understand why Martingale won't work for long. It is not worth to risk a large amount of money for a small profit. No matter how much bankroll you have, this strategy could wipe out the entire balance as simple as that.


To prove how much you're going to be risking just to earn a small amount of money in martingaling, let's do the whole math to this:

(since the basebet = 1 satoshi, I didn't include it in the formula. The formula should have been, 1 satoshi x 2^0, 1 satoshi x 2^1, 1 satoshi x 2^2, and so on.)
Bet Number
   Formula   
Amount (satoshi)
Bet 1
2^0
1
Bet 2
2^1
2
Bet 3
2^2
4
Bet 4
2^3
8
Bet 5
2^4
16
Bet 6
2^5
32
Bet 7
2^6
64
Bet 8
2^7
128
Bet 9
2^8
256
Bet 10
2^9
512
Bet 11
2^10
1024
Bet 12
2^11
2048
Bet 13
2^12
4096
Bet 14
2^13
8192
Bet 15
2^14
16384
Bet 16
2^15
32768
Bet 17
2^16
65536
Bet 18
2^17
131072
Bet 19
2^18
262144
Bet 20
2^19
524288
Bet 21
2^20
1048576
Bet 22
2^21
2097152
Bet 23
2^22
4194304
Bet 24
2^23
8388608
Bet 25
2^24
16777216
Bet 26
2^25
33554432
Bet 27
2^26
67108864
Bet 28
2^27
134217728
Bet 29
2^28
268435456
Bet 30
2^29
536870912
Bet 31
2^30
1073741824
Bet 32
2^31
2147483648
Bet 33
2^32
4294967296
Bet 34
2^33
8589934592
Bet 35
2^34
17179869184
Bet 36
2^35
34359738368
Bet 37
2^36
68719476736

The total is exactly 137,438,953,471 satoshis (~1,374.39BTC) to recover from 36 loss streak. As I'm typing this, the value of that is $9,438,000. It seems like you can do a lot more with that amount of money and someone who's in possession of that amount of money can surely afford a private mentor or tutor which can teach him where to use the money either invest in business or simply becoming a better spender so he doesn't lose that amount of money over purchases that aren't so practical.

As you can see, we came up with these huge numbers because the growth in your bet in martingale method is exponential. At first, it doesn't seem much. But as the losing streak is increasing, your bet just to earn back your losses and that additional 1 satoshi "profit" is becoming more and more ridiculous. Gambling sites are known to have tremendous number for losing streaks in x2 multiplier and it's the reason why martingale never really worked in the long run.

To put an end to your desire of using the technique martingale, think about this. 50k sats per day is 0.0005BTC per day which is $3.43. Is $9,438,000 worth risking for $3.43 a day? Smiley And since the people who wants to gamble with a "mathematical formula" likes to treat gambling as a business, you're obviously a bad business man.