i think the bigger question is what would happen if early satoshi coins moved at all. to some extent, i think the market believes the satoshi coins are lost or otherwise won't move and has therefore priced that in. i could see panic ensuing over this, and whales from the early days bringing supply to the market. if even satoshi is selling, that puts a damper on the idea of hodling!

as an aside, nobody really knows how many coins satoshi mined. we assume that he was the only miner for many months, but we don't actually know. i wouldn't be surprised if some estimates (like yours) are exaggerated.